Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has issued a cautionary statement, asserting that Azerbaijan is contemplating a “full-scale war” as tensions between the two nations escalate.

The recent escalation stems from a border skirmish, resulting in at least four Armenian soldiers dead and another wounded.

Armenia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the incident, labeling it a “provocation” by Azerbaijani troops who allegedly fired on Armenian forces across the border in the eastern Syunik region early on Tuesday.

Accusations and counter-accusations have been exchanged between the two countries in the aftermath of the skirmish.

“Our analysis shows that Azerbaijan wants to launch military action in some parts of the border with the prospect of turning military escalation into a full-scale war against Armenia,” Pashinyan is reported to have said at a government meeting.

Armenia has called on Azerbaijan to avoid engaging in “destabilizing actions.” In response, Azerbaijan’s State Border Service stated that it had retaliated by firing on an Armenian post, the Daily Express reported.

This action was reportedly in response to Armenian shelling of Azerbaijani positions the day before, which resulted in the injury of one Azerbaijani service member.

In a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed portions of Karabakh. Subsequently, in September of the same year, they initiated a swift offensive that defeated separatist forces within a day, compelling them to surrender.

The aftermath saw over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fleeing the region, resulting in near-desertion.

Buoyed by the success of the military operation, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev secured another term last week through a snap election, garnering 92 percent of the vote.

While both Armenia and Azerbaijan have committed to working towards a peace treaty, visible progress has been elusive, and tensions persist amid mutual distrust.

Written by B.C. Begley