The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates to avoid rapid yen appreciation following recent global market turmoil, according to Fitch Solutions’ BMI.

The BOJ is now predicted to hike rates by only 25 basis points to 0.50% this year, down from a previously expected 50 bps increase.

This cautious stance follows the unwinding of the yen carry trade, which triggered a significant market sell-off, CNBC has reported.

BMI forecasts that the BOJ will continue with limited rate hikes through 2025 to avoid further yen strengthening, with rates ending the year at 0.75%, below the projected terminal rate of 1.00%.

Written by B.C. Begley